Skip to content

Runbook — Updating Forecast Drivers

1 · Purpose

Explain how to refresh demand-driver data (e.g., MAU projections, storage growth) so that Athena views, Amazon Forecast models, and QuickSight dashboards stay accurate.

2 · Prerequisites

  • Access to AWS Glue/Athena workspace forecast
  • IAM permissions: athena:StartQueryExecution, s3:PutObject, stepfunctions:StartExecution
  • Product-roadmap CSV or XLSX with updated demand drivers

3 · Procedure

Step 1 – Collect Inputs

  1. Product roadmap → export growth assumptions to drivers_YYYY-MM-DD.csv.
  2. Capacity planning sheet → confirm CPU-hour and storage forecasts.

Step 2 – Upload to S3

aws s3 cp drivers_2025-07-01.csv s3://finops-data/forecast/drivers/
````

### Step 3 – Update Athena Driver Table

```sql
-- File: sql/insert_drivers.sql
INSERT INTO forecast.drivers
SELECT *
FROM EXTERNAL_TABLE('s3://finops-data/forecast/drivers/drivers_2025-07-01.csv');

Run in Athena (or via aws athena start-query-execution).

Step 4 – Recalculate Forecast

Trigger the Step Functions state machine:

aws stepfunctions start-execution \
  --state-machine-arn arn:aws:states:us-east-1:123456789012:stateMachine:RecalcForecast \
  --name "Reforecast_$(date +%Y%m%d_%H%M%S)"

The workflow:

  1. Queries Athena view vw_unit_cost
  2. Calls Amazon Forecast to produce a 12-month projection
  3. Publishes results to QuickSight dataset unit_cost_forecast

Step 5 – Verify Dashboard

  • Open QuickSight dashboard “Unit-Economics” → tab “Forecast”.
  • Check that the “Last refresh” timestamp is current.
  • Sanity-check key metrics (e.g., cost per 1 k API calls).

Step 6 – Notify Stakeholders

Post update in #finops Slack channel:

Forecast drivers updated (2025-07-01). Dashboard refreshed. Variance within ±3 %.

4 · Rollback (if needed)

  1. Revert forecast.drivers table to previous partition:
DELETE FROM forecast.drivers WHERE load_dt = '2025-07-01';
  1. Re-run Step Functions RecalcForecast with prior date parameter.

5 · References

  • Athena database: forecast
  • Step Functions: RecalcForecast (version v1.3)
  • QuickSight dataset: unit_cost_forecast
  • Tagging: all driver records tagged Environment=FinOps