Planning, Forecasting & Total-Cost Analysis
1 · Purpose
Give customers repeatable tools and models to forecast AWS spend, quantify business value, and validate outcomes after migration or new-workload launch.
2 · Capability Matrix
| Checklist Capability | ZirconTech Implementation |
|---|---|
| Inventory-based TCO analysis | • Import on-prem CMDB or RVTools export into Migration Evaluator • Model lift-and-shift vs. right-sized / modernized workloads |
| Value quantification pre- vs. post-migration | • Baseline on-prem OpEx/CapEx, support contracts, licensing • Post-migration KPI dashboard tracks agility gains, MTTR, release cadence |
| Optimized pricing models (RI/SP, EDP) | • Run AWS Pricing Calculator scenarios for On-Demand, Savings Plans, PPAs • Build blended plan recommending mix of Compute SP + EC2 RI + Spot |
| Bottom-up forecasts for net-new workloads | • Terraform module outputs resource counts → Lambda pushes to Athena forecast table • QuickSight "Build-out vs. Budget" dashboard auto-refreshes daily |
| Demand-driver forecasting (unit economics) | • Join CUR with business KPIs (MAU, GB stored) to create regression model $/unit • Use driver projections from product roadmap CSV |
| Value realization beyond cost savings | • KPI set: revenue-per-developer, release frequency, customer churn, outage minutes • Tag resources to features → correlate spend to revenue lines |
| Predictive month/quarter/year estimates | • Athena query feeds Amazon Forecast (Prophet algorithm) for 12-mo projection • Budget alerts compare actual vs. forecast with ±5 % tolerance |
| TTM trend analysis | • Glue crawler partitions CUR → Athena view vw_ttm_costs • QuickSight visual "Rolling 12-Month Spend & YoY Δ" |
3 · Methodology & Process
Phase 1 – Discovery & Data Collection
- Import hardware/software inventory (CSV, RVTools, CMDB API).
- Interview app owners for performance baselines & business KPIs.
- Export trailing 12-month invoices and on-prem cost sheets.
Phase 2 – Modeling
| Model | Tool | Key Outputs |
|---|---|---|
| Lift-and-shift TCO | Migration Evaluator | 3-yr amortized OpEx, break-even chart |
| Right-size / Modernize | AWS Pricing Calculator, Compute Optimizer | RI/SP mix & per-service savings |
| Demand-driver forecast | Athena + Amazon Forecast | Low/Med/High spend scenarios |
| New-workload bottoms-up | Terraform sizing + Pricing Calculator CSV import | Per-feature monthly budget |
Phase 3 – Review & Commit
- Stakeholders choose a target scenario.
- Finance locks budgets; DevOps sets Budgets & anomaly alerts.
- EDP / Private Offer negotiations launched if commit tier exceeded.
Phase 4 – Validation & Continuous Improvement
- Post-migration "Day 30 / Day 90" checkpoint compares actual vs. forecast.
- Quarterly slice: update driver assumptions, refresh regression model.
- Annual refresh: re-assess RI/SP coverage, capacity reservations.
4 · Tooling Stack
| Layer | Default AWS | Optional Third-Party |
|---|---|---|
| Workload discovery | Migration Evaluator, AWS Application Migration Service | Third-party discovery tools |
| Cost modeling | AWS Pricing Calculator, Cost Explorer | Third-party FinOps platforms |
| Forecasting engine | Amazon Forecast, Athena ML | Third-party analytics platforms |
| Dashboards | QuickSight | Power BI, Tableau |
| Budget guardrails | AWS Budgets, Cost Anomaly Detection | Third-party cost management tools |
5 · Roles & Responsibilities
| Role | Key Tasks |
|---|---|
| FinOps Analyst | Owns cost models, updates driver inputs, monitors variance |
| Solutions Architect | Provides sizing guidance, evaluates modernization options |
| Finance Partner | Approves budgets, tracks realized savings & value KPIs |
| Product Owner | Supplies demand-driver projections, reviews unit-cost targets |
6 · Deliverables
- Forecast & TCO Workbook
- QuickSight Dashboard Samples
- RI / Savings-Plan Coverage Plan
- Runbook – Updating Forecast Drivers
This methodology provides a comprehensive approach to AWS planning and forecasting while ensuring accuracy and business value alignment.